Tuesday, December 28, 2010

What's next?

THE EDGE FINANCIAL DAILY (www.theedgemalaysia.com)
* Diversified group DRB-Hicom Bhd is exploring the possibility of divesting its interests in insurers Uni.Asia Life Assurance Bhd and Uni.Asia General Insurance Bhd, sources said.


In my opinion,......

There's rumours saying it will be selling at 900m. I think it should be more than that. Its ok , lets assume it is selling at 900m, how much investor get in return in terms of special dividend? 20c? or more? How much would it contribute to its eps? 40c ++?

series of good news is coming up for drb-hicom. So whats next?
Divest its interest in Bank Muamalat? Maybe? or some other subsi? lol.

maintain buy call below rm2!!!

buy at your own risk!!!

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

new post or older post?

YES, STILL DRB-Hicom

Najib: Malaysia can become manufacturing hub for carmakers

By EUGENE MAHALINGAM
eugenicz@thestar.com.my


KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia has the potential to become the manufacturing hub for global carmakers given the country’s ability to attract foreign investors and ease of doing business, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak said.

“The increasing entry rate of respected multinationals into the Malaysian market reflects the growing confidence that foreign investors have in our economy and investor policies,” he said at the signing ceremony of the collaboration and licence agreement between DRB-Hicom Bhd and Volkswagen AG (VW) yesterday.

Najib said under the National Automotive Policy, the Government provided a range of customised incentives, including tax relief, to entice foreign carmakers to move their operations to Malaysia.

“Our emphasis has been on attracting successful carmakers that utilise high value-added manufacturing techniques and the latest technology – companies like VW.

“We expect global players like VW to create a competitive fervour within the local automotive industry.

“This can push our capabilities to a new level and help us achieve our national objective of becoming an automotive hub for the region,” he added.

Under the collaboration and licence agreement, DRB-Hicom will produce VW vehicles at the former’s production plant in Pekan, Pahang, starting with the Jetta and Passat models, from the fourth quarter of 2011.

The models will initially be produced for the Malaysian market and subsequently for the Asean region.

Najib said by bringing together one of Europe’s best car manufacturers and Malaysia’s own automotive leader, such a venture could transform the country into a VW manufacturing hub for the region.


IN MY OPINION, ......

The title of this write up is "new post or older post". The reason why i come out with this title is because readers of my blog feel weird as i keep maintaining the buy call on drb even after it went up so much... from 1.20(1month ago)-1.99 (yesterday). Percentage gained considered to be very high. However, I'm stil maintain the buy call on this counter. If u guys noticed, the date for the signing of contract is told earlier. Everyone should know that the contract will be sign on 21st of dec but one day earlier which is 15th of dec, the share price went up 15c and on the day of the signing of contract it went up another 6c (1.99).

The share price is now 1.92(down 2c). Today, all the newspapers published the news saying drb and vw ink production pact worth RM1b. Logically, the share should go up? no? I asked some of the experienced investors why is it so... the only answer they can give is..."buy on rumours, sell on fact/news".. Well , i don't agree with it at all. All of us know that drb is signing contract with vw on 21st of dec. the news is publicly available. It is not private/insider news. So, the share price should have adjusted for that news.

All these are just my opinion, I'm still learning as well. Those who have a better explanation can always drop me a msg. :)

Ok.. Besides that, drb has received the LOI from the government to provide new armor vehicle. The project worth RM8billion. When is the Letter of intent(LOI) will turn into letter of award? Probably this month? or following month? I'm sure the project will definitely add value to the company significantly. Lets assume, Letter of award come in early next month+ super bull run(rumours) + window dressing+ probably take over offer?..... Nobody knows ... pe for drb-hicom is about 8times, whereas the klci is trading at the pe of 17times. Drb is now 1.92, how much is drb's share if its trading at pe of 17times? OK all these are just my dream..lol lets wait n see how it goes.

BUY CALL - DRB-Hicom CB (super low premium+expired on oct 2011) Best buy !!

DRB -Hicom (capital appreciation+ (Dividend?) Long term investment

Update

Dialog- cost (1.50)

increased almost 40c b4 profit taking. HOLD !!!!

new call:

Gamuda- buy

BUY AT YOUR OWN RISK!!!! :)



Saturday, December 18, 2010

Another good news on DRB?

DRB-HICOM may assemble 2,400 VW cars

By JEEVA ARULAMPALAM


PETALING JAYA: The collaboration between DRB-HICOM Bhd and Volkswagen AG to assemble selected models of Volkswagen cars at the former’s Pekan plant may see the initial assembly of some 2,400 units per annum, say analysts.

“It’s difficult to say how many units will be assembled initially as they have yet to indicate. But we could see some 200 units being assembled on a monthly basis before a further ramp-up,” a motoring analyst told StarBizWeek.

Potential models that could be assembled in the Pekan plant include either the Volkswagen Polo or GTI, say analysts.

DRB-HICOM said in a press invite issued yesterday that there would be a signing ceremony on Tuesday between both parties on the collaboration and licence agreement to assemble selected models of Volkswagen cars at DRB-HICOM’s automotive complex in Pekan.

The signing ceremony will be witnessed by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak.

Both carmakers first signed the memorandum of understanding in August, which will also strengthen Volkswagen’s existing sales activities and market presence in the country.

Najib had said then that three new Volkswagen models were expected to roll out of the Pekan plant. He added that the assembly of completely knockdown vehicle components of the renowned German brand would see the roll-out of the vehicles from the plant by the end of the first quarter of next year.

Volkswagen had requested for incentives from the Malaysian government to make DRB-HICOM’s production plant here its export base for the Asean region.

A local bank-backed analyst said that while the initial start-up of this assembly would be loss-making, its potential margin outlook is good.

DRB-HICOM also sells Audi cars, a brand under Volkswagen, Mitsubishi vehicles and Modenas motorcycles. It also has a stake in the local manufacture and assembly of Honda cars in the country.

The company, which has been largely reliant on its automobile division accounting for 57% of revenue in its previous financial year, said recently that it planned for larger contribution from its services and property divisions in the medium term.

It anticipates growth in services through 70%-owned Bank Muamalat Bhd and a number of concessions it owns along with new property launches to balance the scales in contribution to the group. DRB-HICOM’s plan is for a more balanced contribution among the segments of the group over the next five years.


Update

Small investor like us might think that DRB-HICOM has increased too much to the extent where it should stay at current level for some time. Therefore, some of us might dispose the shares in DRB and invest in other counter.

I bought this counter some time ago. And now i have 2 options:-

1) Dispose and realise the profit and invest in other counter.

2) Keep it as a long term investment.

There are rumours saying DRB might take private at 2.50 or 2.70. Famous blogger even say that this is a great opportunity for Syed Mokhtar. IF you had keep an eye on this counter, you should have notice the company is coming up with series of good news such as mou with russian truck manufacturer, DRB may assemble 2400 vw cars(latest) and so what's next? PRIVATISATION?? (MAYBE? WHO KNOWS?) lol

Although the company has already announced that they are unaware of the privatisation plan, it is still sound fishy. The latest changes in the code on takeovers and mergers should be able to stop them from denying if they really plan to do so because Potential offerors will be prohibited from making a takeover offer within a period of six months should they deny making an offer. This is really a good change that will protect minority investor like us.

As i mention above, there are 2 options for me now. Apparently i have decided to hold DRB for medium -long term and see how it goes. Strong quarterly result+ coming bull run should be able to give us a pre chinese new year angpau(provided u choose the right counter). Besides that, i have increased my investment on this counter this week at the price of $1.75-1.80.

In conclusion, a small investor like us should have invest in a good fundamental company rather than highly speculative counter. Moreover, we also have to make sure they company is expanding and doing something then we will have a better chance to get capital appreciation. Today is 18 Dec 2010. Invest at the right time is important. In my opinion, it is the right time so the next step will be "which is the right counter?" You decide!

I maintain buy call on DRB-HICOM below $1.92

BUY AT YOUR OWN RISK!!!!!! :)



Friday, December 17, 2010

Update

First of all, i need to apologize on the sell call i have made earlier as it went up about 10% after my post. I have sold that counter as well.

Update
Dialog's share price has risen from $1.50-$1.70 since my first post. (hold)
Bjcorp remain unchanged. BUY
DRB-Hicom -buy and hold -it went up 12c since my previous post.
series of good news are coming up.

buy at your own risk :)

Monday, December 13, 2010

DECEMBER THEME PLAY

DRB-Hicom - buy and hold!!!

DIALOG - buy and hold!!!


*buy at ur own risk :)

Thursday, December 9, 2010

SELL!!!

SELL call on OSK!!!

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Monday, December 6, 2010

No.4 update +new counter

Today i gonna do some update for my previous buy call
last monday this monday
Encorp 90c 91c maintain buy for short term
Dialog 1.50 1.57 maintain buy below 1.65
Bjcorp 1.04 1.07 maintain buy below 1.15


6th December 2010

LATEST
OSK- buy call (buy below 1.95)

buy at your own risk!!!

Friday, December 3, 2010

No. 3 update

US stocks rally for second straight day

How about Malaysia?

Hwang DBS Vickers Research said the recovery of the Malaysian bourse should continue on Friday, Dec 3 following an extended rally on Wall Street overnight where key U.S. equity indices were up between 0.9% and 1.3% at the closing bell lifted by optimistic economic data.

“Given the positive external backdrop, the benchmark FBM KLCI will probably pull further away from the psychological mark of 1,500, possibly heading towards its resistance level of 1,525,” it said.

Written by The Edge Financial Daily


Since Monday 29 Nov 2010 (first day after my first post)

Bjcorp = 1.08 increased 4c

Dialog = 1.58 increased 8c

Encorp= 92c increased 4.5c

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

No. 2 - UPDATE

Market opens weaker on December

Update
Previous post

Bjcorp- rose 6cents on 30 nov
maintain buy below 1.10-immediate term

Dialog-fell 2cents on 1st of Dec
maintain buy below 1.60- immediate term

Encorp - buy and hold for short term


buy at your own risk! :)